Fibre & White Elephants: The growing list of observations and questions...

I do not recall where I saw them, but I remember seeing once OLD pictures in shades of sepia of a huge white elephant painted on the roof of the Pier Pavilion in my home town. The facility had been newly built, and was, at the time, pretty much used by just the roller hockey team; which for some reason I am yet to fathom was pretty big then, and now.

However, in the run up to the go live of the phase one of the fibrespeed project in North Wales, I cannot help but think that possibly I need to cutting myself a white elephant spray stencil and start visiting comms man-hole-covers in the dead of night?

A major player in the comms field has been paid by the WAG to put in a carrier grade fibre ring around the north of Wales as the first step in networking the business parks in the principality. This is a fantastic idea, and opportunity. They have been paid to put it in, but are now charging BIG cash for the use of it. Sure, now this is cheaper than BT, and furthermore - BT will deliver you their biggest capacity internet transit connection of a whopping 2Mb leased line in this part of the country for a 3.5K install and 7K pa - but that's not really a leased line, that's not really a realistic choice over making do with a single/bonded S/ADSL line is it? No.

This has massive capacity to bring a lot of opportunities to this part of the country, so long considered to be out in the sticks... especially in the tech market (above and beyond glass as is considered a centre of excellence where we are now) - however how easily it would go the way of the business parks, built on grants, and then over priced by the new owners so the main occupants are public sector. This project could so easily go the same way... and all the 'umming' and 'arring' in respect to "its meant to be launching on Thursday" is not giving me, for one, the love it needs to be.

Maybe I am alone?

I am just surprised that for a project that runs into the tens of millions things are just as they would be for us, running around down to the wire, with no firm pricing, quotes taking four weeks to still not appear and the like.

Or maybe the goal is just to supply a cheaper self funded opportunity to the public sector as Police, Hospitals, Health Centres, Coast Guard all jump on board to link point to point or take backhaul.... surely that is going to make the new owners feel rather uncomfortable? The real issue is the Fibrespeed product cost, So you would like 20Mbit feed - sure that will be three figures install, then three figures a year, plus backhaul? *cough*. Maybe I don't live in the world these people do - and I sure as hell would not want to.

If the providers get their act in gear this is going to be fantastic = bandwidth from 10Mb to Gigabit on site, the opportunity to build from the ground up, deliver a smarter, better serviced solutions from minutes not hours away. As data centres ask for more and more in return for less and less as they struggle to manage demand, heat, and power - could this be a tipping point for Manchester facilities? Either way it is an exciting time for us, a new hope - a chance to spread our wings from our cramped confines, but relying on, waiting on, REALLY SUCKS in the meantime.

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anthony:

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If you happen to find yourself without parts to complete a splicing job on the St. Asaph Business Park, North Wales - then you should seriously consider giving the really nice chaps (and chapesses) at http://www.leaderoptec.com/. They can assemble from stock or get in parts very quickly indeed from their local warehouses and very reasonably priced too.

For example there would be no need to drive... say... to Birmingham to pick up SC/SM fibre pigtails, or Bristol for female SC/SM wall boxes for an already overdue termination and testing.


anthony:

anthony's picture

Okay - I was curious, and I phoned up to get some prices on proper connectivity to an old office I used to work in just of the Kings Road. So, this is over a five year period, and has no setup (or recurring setup fee):

10mbit £7,600pa
100mbit £39,160pa
1000mbit £213,480pa

... and remember these are not wholesale, these are retail prices, this is just me, a few minutes, and "Hello BT I was wondering if you could help me".

Now, given that my wages differ between the Kings Road Chelsea, and St Asaph Denbighshire... its fair to say that the companies are probably going to be less likely to fork out that much - even for BT. So comparison to the retail figures that where online briefly with Fibre Wales, how does this shape up? Your call.

For me - its about people wanting connectivity at a pricemark, not whether its a redundant ring, or a bespoke build. For those who are taking it (the service providers) they know what they want, they don't have any other options, they will take it ... "what the market will bare".

However I have the figure "bringing 15 million per year in the first three years"* ringing in my ears still - who's quote was that, I think it would be lucky to be thousand?

*I need to re watch the video and find the exact quote, sorry if that is way out.


anthony:

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In the interim period while seeking further advice I would like to point out the following:

Implied or expressed views and/or opinions, are the views of the of the author, and are not necessarily attributed to the authors employers. These views, opinions, and statements are made without prejudice.


anthony:

anthony's picture

The following article was published in Daily Post, 4th March - where Money supermarket are complaining that a 10Gbit connection is not enough for their outfit.

While I appreciate that there is no doubt a media spin on that - there are two things with this that I would question.

1) If you are in a position to take dark fibre, as that is what it would require to take a 10GB service, you should also appreciate that you could take multiple 10GB feeds. The limitation is really on your termination and peering/connectivity on the Manchester end?

2) 10GBit is a *lot* of data. To put this into perspective a given ISP that has recently bought AOL at auction has around 800 000 subscribed clients, delivered over around 25 'fat-pipes' (BT 622Mb/s "fat pipe" costs £124,000 per month with a set-up £150,000) uses 15GB. So - how much traffic do they get? Honestly? ...and in this monetary climate*?

...it just does not add up to me. Equally - why does the article on the same day from the Daily Post website not say the same thing, dwelling more on the phone peoples happiness on the projects arrival.

*Also pre-empting the loss over 100 jobs at moneysupermarket


anthony:

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"The region will now compare with London and the South East for affordable, high speed and high bandwidth internet communication" is the superb idea that is driving the pricing of the North Wales FibreSpeed providers FibreSpeed/Geo.

This is fantastic news as not only did BTnet halve their prices before 2008 was out delivering 10 for the price of 5Mbit, but now they have gone a step further. BT now slashing their fibre prices by a much larger amount for London and the south east. So does this mean that FibreSpeed will follow suit with 65% price reduction on 100Mbit also?

Or where the prices fixed at what London and the South East where offering in the past? It would be interesting to know - as the competitive advantage it was aimed at delivering has otherwise gone. Completely. See that, over there, no... to the left, yes, that... in the distance... that's the advantage. It is a FANTASTIC opportunity, that appears to be being allowed to drop dead through a sea of reasons. In fact I should start formalising a list.

Meanwhile the PoP outside is still running off of a static generator. I am not sure as to whether this means the one on site is not working, or simply that the recently dug trench is yet to be livened up. Must get out there with the camera this week - wont need much encouragement with snow forecast.


anthony:

anthony's picture

I have just recalled from the exhibition the other day - on being asked whether it would cost more than home broadband...

... the response came back that it is a far better service, and not comparable, but would cost more.

Something along those lines.

On a good day, downhill, with a tailwind, a map, laser guidance - 55x more is not something I would describe with a simple "would cost more". You? Thoughts?

It is however comparable. Even working from home - with voip - synchronous is not a requirement is it? No. But they are 'comparable' from layer 2 and 3 upward - especially to anyone asking a question like that.

This was refreshingly not wrapped in "its down to the service providers to set the pricing". Thanks 'the opposition' for stepping up to that challenge appreciated.

I wish I had a better memory and could quote better. Harumph.


anthony:

anthony's picture

FibreSpeed makes the news today with contracting issues, with around £300,000 unpaid according to the BBC.

However unconfirmed sources talk of larger figures, and physical damage to the cable has occured as a result of this.

In other news - how surprised would you be if you had to pay a one time setup cost more than once? Me? Lots. However if you want to continue beyond the end of the 3 year contract... guess what... setup fee!

'Bet you didn't see that coming?

*update - this article in the free press about the staff being let go by the Denbighshire based firm.


@nthony:

Anonymous's picture

Current estimate for the only customer that we know of taking a 1Gbit feed, and the only customer we know of on our business park St. Asaph has been informed that despite putting his order in in December - is currently being told to be connected in March.

There is a box in the ground that is about 10 to 20m from their office. It has a fibre trench pre dug to that box.

Hmmm - would that go under 'empowering', 'transforming' or ... no - not 'connecting' surely?


anthony:

anthony's picture

The Fibrespeed Pricing from one of the service providers has landed. With the narrowest of margins for the supplier considering the undertaking.

So for the first mentions of guide pricing in this brave move, the solution that has so many people fighting to have it pass their place of work or employ looks at £3K install (recurring every three years), £7K recurring for a 10mbit symmetric connection with a three year contract.

So - unless you are large, established and minted - are you really going to want some or to move from bonded ADSL at a minimum of 16Mb down and 1.6Kbit up for that much for 10Mbit symmetrical? Sure you want it - but for that much?

So much for the evasion of "pricing model is down to the supplier" as a defense for "HOW MUCH?!".

* Figures taken from the really rather nice people up the road (FibreWales) - who have since pulled their pricing PDF from their site (I assume through their own choice).


anthony:

anthony's picture

....meeting yesterday with some nice people from who we shall call Company X.

Given the FS pricing and Company X (involving a colour and a letter) pricing; for LESS than annual charge of a 10cm aperture rental you can actually purchase your own 25m (that is not a small mast) to stick it on. "well I never". We can go on to talk point to point radio links for less than fibre as opposed to a sinking feeling in your gut.

How is this "okay". Did the WAG/Europeans have input into the pricing?

While we are at it I found the following article (original source at the now defunct WDA site) - compare and contrast. SO... how much for my cable run to my meet-me-room? Manchester its £100 notes. Note they mention not only the business parks but the Technium projects. So - erm - can we compare and contrast the 100 notes for a wire, and then its your wire, and the recurring costs of 4 figures after a 4 figure install?

Letter to local AM Ann Jones 12th December, has gone un-answered, its time to resend to a wider audience. The primary questions are:

1) How many business' are you planning to have on line before the end of 2009;
2) How many of these are not going to fall under the Hospital, Fire, and other public bodies (that are probably already bound by the PSBA);
3) How much do you expect people to be outlaying on getting connected to the service.


anthony:

anthony's picture

Nortel Networks are responsible for the fibre and infrastructure that power the FibreSpeed Wales network.

Here is a fragment from a news article that I read today on the tech channel site The Register.

"Nortel shares fell another 20 per cent yesterday on stories that it has hired lawyers to explore filing for bankruptcy if its latest restructuring fails.

The telecoms equipment maker has watched its shares fall from $15 at the start of the year to just 49 cents today"

I bet there are a few people wincing at the moment as they have had the launch, and, erm, well, err - how is it going chaps?


anthony:

anthony's picture

... I can see me continually adding more and more to this by way of a means to vent.

"We are proud to launch with 12 service providers signed up"

You said your target was 12, you have 12. You initially had 3, which became 7. Curiously the local BIG players are not there. I wonder why.

Looking across the matrix of service provision gives nothing of a sense of either experience, or real background in the subject. Turning up there on launch day there seemed to be one games developer with an odd UI looking to sell, someone selling mobile phones, someone selling asterisk style solutions, and the people who put the put the fibre in who are interested in selling unlit fibre only.

So - the list of 12 is down, now lets look closer. Two of the remaining OWN THEIR OWN NETWORKS and not buying from a third party, can supply real diverse routes, or - really have any control over their routes, hardware at all. Us, and some other really rather sound guys who are on the same business park.

So - one of us an obvious choice for beta testers - hell no, that went to game developers and one of the third party resellers.

*mutter.

The matrix has been extended to supply tick boxes for other clients on there for things like telecoms - and I am left reminded of a self assessment project we once did where we realised "tick all the boxes and see what they take off of you"... erm... is that's what is going on here? Certainly looks like it; mark us down for international comms, and telecomms, as you have ommited to tick us for what we specialise in.

FFS.

Being - and I quote "under political pressure to have a launch despite it running behind", is this any reason to induce such spin on the self appreciation talks and branding?

IMHO? No.


anthony:

anthony's picture

Having attended the launch of the project, which will be live from January (?) - it has been confirmed that BT are looking to take bandwidth over the installation.

If BT had a requirement to take bandwidth out here back to their backbone, then why did they not dig themselves? No? Let the government pay for it, then buy it cheaper. Then slash your London prices so the project is not on a comparable tariff. Oh this is, for sure, an Open System - which in no way equates to a Level Playing Field.

Repeat to self... not my world, not my world, not my...


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